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3709 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, CA 90089
"Doomsday or Multiverse Bias"
Abstract: I argue that Bayesian epistemology has problems dealing with worlds with varying numbers of agents. Given modest assumptions, there is either an implausible confirmation that there are few agents (Doomsday) or an implausible confirmation that there are many agents (Multiverse Bias). Sadly, the modest assumptions are hard to deny, and both sorts of implausible confirmation are hard to live with.
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