Are periods of political instability inevitable? Or can they be predicted and prevented? The USC Center for the Political Future invites you to a conversation and book talk with Peter Turchin, Author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. This discussion will be moderated by Ken Broad, a Member of the USC Center for the Political Future Board of Councilors and a Founding Member of Jackson Square Partners. 

CLICK HERE TO WATCH: "Book Talk with Peter Turchin: End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration"

This conversation will take place on Monday, April 6 from 4:00 to 5:30 pm in SOS B4. It will explore Peter’s research on the structural forces that have preceded periods of unrest throughout history, including rising inequality, elite overproduction, and declining trust in institutions. Drawing on centuries of comparative data, the conversation will examine what these patterns may reveal about contemporary politics, and whether understanding them can help societies avoid future instability.

About End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration: End Times argues that societies become unstable when elite numbers grow faster than available power and resources, producing frustrated “counter-elites” who challenge the existing order. Peter Turchin uses historical data to show how elite overproduction, economic inequality, and declining state capacity interact to drive cycles of polarization and unrest. He warns that without reforms to rebalance these forces, modern democracies risk prolonged periods of political breakdown rather than sudden collapse.

Panelists Include:

• Peter Turchin – Complexity Scientist and Historian; Professor, University of Connecticut; Founding Figure in the Field of Cliodynamics; Author, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
• Ken Broad – Member, USC Center for the Political Future Board of Councilors; Founding Member, Jackson Square Partners

This event is held in partnership with the USC Open Dialogue Project.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH: "Book Talk with Peter Turchin: End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration"